Data Dive: Sharks Predicted To Lose Their Bite And Can Spivey Move To MVP Status?

Toulouse marks the second stop of the Super League Triathlon 2023 Championship Series and there are enough stars coming into the line-up to turn the Leaderboards on their head.

The data proved a reliable friend in London, correctly predicting that Alex Yee would triumph in the opener while the RTP Sharks were comfortable victors in the first round of the Teams chase.

However, nothing stands still for long in Super League, and Toulouse will shake things up.

Here are the things we are looking out for:

RTP Sharks to lose their bite?

Michelle Dillon’s RTP Sharks were predicted to be dominant in London – but nobody thought they would lead by so much heading to France. The data suggested they would gain 125 points, but in the end they pulled together 148 – the most any Team has ever scored in one event, leaving the other three teams behind their predicted numbers.

However, with the big start list shake up in Toulouse, things are expected to look very different come Sunday night.

The Santara Tech Eagles are expected to bag 119 points, Bahrain Victorious Scorpions 102, Sharks 85 (with a heavy reliance on their women to get that many) and RTS Warriors just 43. If all goes to the data, this is what the standings will look like heading to Malibu:

1. RTP Sharks: 233
2. Santara Tech Eagles: 184
3. Bahrain Victorious Scorpions: 162
4. RTS Warriors: 118

What does it all mean for the Teams title?

The numbers have shifted massively as a result of Malibu and the start list changes for Toulouse. Throwing it forward with the numbers crunched, it is closer than you may think given the dominance of the Sharks in London.

Predicted final Team Leaderboard standings:

1. RTP Sharks: 427
2. Santara Tech Eagles: 390
3. Bahrain Victorious Scorpions: 376
4. RTS Warriors: 200

MVPs

Jeanne Lehair was not just a shock winner of the London race, but also a surprise leader in the MVP charts on the day. Her haul of 23 points – 15 for the win and a table topping 8 in the Run Discipline – was the best score of the day. Sophie Coldwell was a point behind with Kate Waugh and Taylor Spivey securing the same as the highest scoring man, who was Alex Yee with 21.

It’s all different in Toulouse. The predicted MVPs are:

1. Taylor Spivey: 23.6
2. Hayden Wilde: 22.7
3. Emma Lombardi: 20.3
4. Matt Hauser: 19.5
5. Jeanne Lehair: 18.0

Triple Mix stats

The stats suggest the Triple Mix format has not favoured the swimmers in the same way as the Enduro that was raced in London has done historically, with strong all-rounders often doing well.

Previous Triple Mix results

• TOULOUSE 22:
  • Taylor-Brown won from Spivey and Coldwell; Wilde won from Coninx and Nener;
• MALIBU 22:
  • Spivey won from Garcia and Taylor-Brown; Wilde won from Sagiv and Vilaca;
• LONDON 22:
  • Taylor-Brown won from Beaugrand and Spivey; Yee won from Brownlee and Wilde;
• LONDON 21:
  • Taylor-Brown won from Potter and Holland; Wilde won from Vilaca and Brownlee;
• JERSEY 18:
  • Beaugrand from Zaferes and Gentle; Luis from Schoeman and Blummenfelt;
• MALLORCA 18:
  • Zaferes won from Spivey and Kasper; Schoeman won from Luis and Brownlee;
• JERSEY 17:
  • Zaferes from Spirig and Cook; Blummenfelt won from Murray and Brownlee